International media have recently exposed a "new Statistics Law", China's foreign trade performance was significantly "reduced" media production titled "A New Algorithm 'subversion' global trade patterns China is not the first trading power."
This message appears to Chinese accomplishments "undervalued" In fact, this "new algorithm," more accurately reflects the actual situation of international trade on China's foreign trade development, or to provide a "good" and opportunities.
"Second World" results, nice, can be "big tree attracts the wind", and in the world "trade protectionism" prevalent today, many countries on the "peg" China, and according to incomplete statistics, about 80% of the " anti-dumping, "" countervailing "case points to China.
In fact, any discerning especially experts understand, "China import and export volume the world's second" This data is based on the traditional algorithm conclusions do not reflect China's processing trade in value added to the product to provide a very limited reality. For example, the Apple phone in China for processing, assembly, and then sold on foreign markets, it is $ 187.51 ex-works (2010) all included in the total value of Chinese exports to the U.S., but $ 187.51 of which are in fact the real added value of China only a few dollars, most of it is owned by the United States (accounting for the main part) and Japan, South Korea, Germany and China Taiwan and other countries and regions all.
In fact, this in order to border as the basis for statistical algorithms, beginning in global trade, is indeed better reflects the real situation of international trade, but in the deepening of globalization, cross-border investment, transfer of industry to bring the share of intermediate goods trade increasing the proportion of reality, often leads to double counting, not only distorts the nature of intermediate goods trade, but also exaggerated the seriousness of global trade imbalances.
Therefore, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) last year to jointly develop a "value-added trade statistics system", the difference between the algorithm and the traditional algorithm is mainly reflected in the statistical caliber. To 2009 data, the algorithm based on tradition, and that total import and export of China's 2.49 trillion U.S. dollars, the United States was $ 3.54 trillion, China for the United States 70%; while statistical algorithm based on the added value of China's total trade value added to $ 1.61 trillion, the United States was $ 2.69 trillion, China's 59.8 percent for the United States. According to the proportion of projections, in this statistical approach, the United States imports and exports in 2012 was still significantly higher than China, occupying the position of the world. Development of market economy, globalization is a trend, globalization, major and important issues is manifested in international trade. With the development of new technologies, globalization steadily advancing. Marx advancing globalization on productivity has long been predicted: "Because the machine and steam applications, the size of the division of labor has led to large industrial base out of the country, totally dependent on the world market, international exchange and international division of labor." ("The Poverty of Philosophy," " Marx and Engels Collected Works, "Vol 4, p 169) new technological revolution, the new products constantly push the world, has more than a third of global trade is entering the market of new products. There are two important progress globalization material basis, namely the development of specialization and cooperation, the emergence and development of multinational companies, known as "universal brotherhood" important "carrier"; Second emerged since the 1960s, ultra- large, ultra-high speed and manifold emergence of modern means of transport, and in the 1990s the emergence and widespread use of the Internet, greatly promote the process of globalization. This increase of more than half a century of economic growth in foreign trade almost doubled, Asian "Tigers", the development of China's reform and opening up have shown signs of economic operation of this. Of these 32 years the average annual GDP growth of 10.03 percent, an average annual foreign trade is about 20%.
Foreign trade is a global market economy means allocation of resources, there is an "invisible hand" at work. According to master the technology, capital, labor, natural resources, markets, and other factors can be developed in different endowments of land and the amount, on a global scale in "survival of the fittest", "pass on" the selection and configuration. In China, we have a "cheap labor", there is a vast land, there is a market economic system "blank field", our lack of capital, technology and management and other factors. We call the "demographic dividend", "reform dividend" (ie, the market system construction) in the process of globalization, the world especially in developed countries and resource rich countries, according to their skills, capital and resource advantages, but also sharing China's these "bonus." Thomas? Friedman, "The World is Flat," said Ten "driving force" of the world crushed into a "platform", these "driving force" is mainly the power of Internet technology, which also has production methods "to promote force "," offshore business "is one of the world's production needs that the allocation of resources, this configuration is not necessarily in the national, local, choosing instead to place a variety of resources for optimum configuration, which had" offshore operations. " "Offshore operations" in this chapter, Friedman is the "Chinese case", that is, China is the best place international allocation of resources, countries regard the production of "element" concentrated in China "Configuration", which making China's foreign trade has made great progress.
Traditional statistical method and the "value added" statistical method an important distinction, the former is the total exports from the territory, which is "value added" data. According to Commerce Department data, China exported 60% of the processing trade, mainly for machining parts and components to be assembled and then exported to foreign countries, this part of the export product requires a lot of intermediate goods is based, namely the need to increase in value through layers After the final product will enter China a program - assembly, then export to other countries. In the processing trade, the Chinese products are actually available for the entire new value added is very limited, but because it is the best in the global industry chain downstream, the export will be included in China ex-factory price of the product's total exports. There is a very embarrassing traditional statistical fact: China's exports is large, but not much real added value, in accordance with the OECD-WTO projections, the actual increase in value less than the original 65% of total exports.
I think that the foreign trade statistics of the "new algorithm" introduced, "middle value added" reflects the clarity is conducive to China's foreign trade is no longer "so prominent", "wood show in the forest wind will destroy," "low-key" , making it less "staring" us and give us the development of a more equitable international environment.
Of course, according to my observation, economic statistical methods are often "old and new parallel", such as "GDP" statistical methods and economic strength of the "PPP" (purchasing power parity statistical methods), will be used (according to expert forecasts, in accordance with the "PPP" calculations, China will surpass the U.S. economy after five years, in 2012 China's GDP was $ 8.1 trillion, U.S. $ 15.8 trillion). Later, in foreign trade will surely be so, but the traditional approach is generally still in the "mainstream" approach. However, with new ways for a more realistic understanding of China's foreign trade is still worthy of recognition provides a statistical approach, we need to use a good number of occasions in this regard "good."