General Administration of Customs released the latest data show that in May, China's import and export value of 345.11 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 0.4%. Which exports 182.77 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 1%; imports 162.34 billion U.S. dollars, down 0.3%.
Customs analysis, in May alone, China's foreign trade growth rate fell sharply, one hand is the Hong Kong Basic arbitrage trading has been checked, the Mainland and the Hong Kong Trade rapid decline; the other hand, by the domestic economic slowdown, sluggish external demand , the high cost of doing business, the RMB real effective exchange rate, trade, environmental degradation and other factors combined.
Foreign trade data out of water
"Trade bubble burst, in large part because of the recent Chinese customs have stepped up their 'hot money arbitrage' supervision, our study also shows that in the past few months, the abnormal rise of China's trade data, in a very largely because of domestic jacket Lee caused. "ANZ chief economist for Greater China, Liu Ligang said.
This year, China's trade data is consistently higher than market expectations, especially in some areas there has been exporting high-speed growth of the phenomenon. The first four months of this year China's exports grew by 17.4%, while the total value of trade between the Mainland and Hong Kong were up by 66%, much higher than I am with the performance of other major trading partners, bilateral trade. Meanwhile, the "High" foreign trade data and trade companies are also the feelings and leading indicators divergence.
Trade data raised doubts on the market and the relevant administrative departments concerned. From the beginning of April, the Customs Department, the Ministry of Commerce, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, etc. have started to investigate on this case, and quickly introduced a series of measures to curb the appreciation of the RMB against Hong Kong context arbitrage trade.
Data show that the first five months, the Mainland and Hong Kong amounted to 179.91 billion U.S. dollars of bilateral trade, an increase of 52%, the data from the previous 66% in April decreased by 14 percentage points.
In addition to being curb hot money factors, the domestic economic slowdown, sluggish external demand, the high cost of doing business, the RMB real effective exchange rate, trade, environmental degradation and other comprehensive factors, but also led to the May trade data is weak.
This year, the RMB against the U.S. dollar, euro, yen and other major currencies, rapid appreciation, especially in April after the appreciation of the renminbi to further accelerate. RMB appreciation caused further narrow profit margins of export enterprises and enterprises have not received the order situation is very prominent.
China International Economic and Exchange Center Zhang Yongjun, Deputy Minister of Economic Research, told reporters that since the first quarter of this year RMB effective exchange rate has appreciated greatly, which is never the past. This is undoubtedly the export competitiveness of enterprises greatly.
Foreign trade situation is still grim
The data reflect a reasonable return to foreign trade situation is not optimistic.
Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce Foreign Trade Li Jian said that from the overall look of this year's foreign trade will be slightly better than last year, but the future is still full of uncertainties. From external demand, although the developed economies further downside risks have eased, but the signs of economic recovery is not strong. Some emerging market currencies in the passive appreciation of the quantitative easing policy, economic development is also facing difficulties, external demand is difficult to continue to grow. From imports, the domestic economy endogenous growth, lack of motivation, domestic demand is still relatively weak.
Trade frictions will lead to deteriorating trading environment. "In the next period of time, we believe that China's foreign trade will continue to face tough challenges, mainly because of the continued appreciation of the renminbi and the intensification of trade frictions." Liu Ligang said the EU on Chinese solar products recently adopted a levy high tariffs punishment, and as retaliation, China also imports from the EU to take a punitive tariffs on wine. Although these products accounted for a smaller proportion of the overall trade volume, rising trade friction between China and Europe is for it will not be a good thing.
On the whole, analysts generally believe that this year the foreign trade situation will be slightly better than last year, but after a few years you want to achieve double-digit growth almost impossible.